Editoral-No movement

Pakistan rolled out the red carpet for Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday, the grand welcome an attempt to establish the government’s bona fides as a genuine partner in peace.

The ongoing thaw in relations will continue with the July 15 meeting between the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, but the same unanswered questions continue to linger in the air ever since Prime Minister Singh and Prime Minister Gilani made their ‘breakthrough’ in March. What is apparent by now is that the Indian tone when it comes to Pakistan has changed. But there seems to have been little to no movement in terms of substance so far. Even if it has stopped saying so quite as insistently as previously, India continues to put the terrorism issue first. At the very least, India wants the trial of the men held here in connection with the Mumbai attacks to be completed speedily. Beyond that it wants some firm kind of response against, specifically, the Laskhar-i-Taiba, the group that India believes was behind the Mumbai attacks, and, more generally, other ‘India-centric’ militant groups here.

The problem on this side in regard to those core Indian demands is twofold. One, the army’s ‘prioritisation approach’ in the fight against militancy means that the India-centric groups are much lower down the ladder in terms of priority. Two, with the army wary of Indian activities in Afghanistan, the growing military threat India represents on Pakistan’s eastern border and the long-standing Kashmir and water issues, there is a sense that there is virtually no possibility that Pakistan will do something simply because India demands it, even if circuitously through the international community.

Therein lies the problem. If change in tone does not lead to a change in substantive positions, at least on the issue of talking — and talking about the issues, not talks about talks — then Pakistan and India look set to continue this delicate diplomatic dance that convinces no one. Of course, just as Prime Minister Singh surprised the world in March by seemingly breaking from India’s post-Mumbai stance towards Pakistan, there is a possibility of another surprise being pulled from the diplomatic hat. So on the caravan of hope must move, to July 15. Privately, Indian officials are not very upbeat about the possibility of any major breakthrough then, which means that the caravan of hope risks becoming a diplomatic circus. The governments of India and Pakistan owe it to their people to do all that can be done to move their nations closer towards the path of peace. Anything less, and the perpetrators of Mumbai would have won.

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