Editoral-Russia’s slow modernisation

By Simon Tisdall
Saturday, 26 Jun, 2010

PRESIDENT Dmitry Medvedev this week stepped up his campaign to convince the West that Russia can be counted on as a reliable political and business partner. But even as he toured California and talked of creating a Russian equivalent of Silicon Valley, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was up to his old tricks.

While continuing to deny Russia uses its energy exports as a geopolitical weapon, Putin, the former president, warned neighbouring Belarus it could face a total shutdown in gas supplies unless it knuckled under. On Thursday Russian gas producer Gazprom said it was resuming supplies to Belarus after it paid £133m for previous shipments.

The row was ostensibly about the debt. But the context is Kremlin displeasure at Minsk’s decision to take in the deposed president of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, ousted in a Moscow-backed coup this year. The dispute recalled rows with Ukraine that caused energy shortages across Europe. Ukraine elected a more amenable government, which agreed to extend the Russian Black Sea fleet’s lease on port facilities in Sevastopol. As if by magic, Gazprom lowered gas prices for Kiev.

Against this backdrop, Medvedev took his message of a modernising Russia to the White House, where he and Barack Obama were expected to discuss economic cooperation. He is due to meet the British premier David Cameron at the G8 summit in Canada. But Obama and Cameron face a similar dilemma.

The US has tried to ‘reset’ relations with Moscow since George Bush left office, brokering deals on nuclear weapons reductions and Iran sanctions. Yet it is concerned about authoritarian trends within Russia and strategic issues such as the government’s uncompromising stance towards former Soviet republics within its ‘sphere of influence’.

Recent moves to enhance the surveillance powers of the FSB (the successor to Putin’s KGB), attempts to block a book about Putin by opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, the politicised trial of former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the failure to solve more than a dozen murders involving human rights advocates and investigative journalists appear at odds with Medvedev’s vision of a transformed Russia.

Last week Mikhail Gorbachev, the reformist former Soviet leader, said Russia was halfway through the transition from communist monolith to modern state. “Modernisation can be carried out but only if the people are included ... We need democracy, we need improvement of the electoral system. Without that, it will not succeed,” he said.

British officials say Cameron is hoping for a “substantive” meeting with Medvedev; the Russian ambassador to London has suggested a fresh page could be turned in bilateral relations. But Britain shares Washington’s concerns and has some of its own, notably Russia’s refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoy, a former KGB officer sought in connection with the 2006 murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London.

Still, Obama and Cameron are likely to encourage Medvedev’s modernisation campaign, hoping perhaps to strengthen his hand in what may become a power struggle with Putin ahead of the 2012 presidential election. Putin has refused to say whether he will stand.

Working in Medvedev’s favour is the growing realisation that a more diversified economy, less state control and more private sector businesses are essential for the country’s long-term health. Russia’s economy contracted last year by 7.9 per cent, following worldwide falls in commodity prices, boosting Medvedev’s argument that it is too reliant on energy exports.

Medvedev’s ability to influence the way Putin runs the country is limited. But he may be gaining in confidence.

— The Guardian, London

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